Most sports betting sites offer different NBA betting markets for each game. One of the most interesting and sometimes profitable is betting on how basketball players do. Aside from the game’s superstars, most players’ stats change from one night to the next. So, if you can tell when a player is having a good or bad night, you can use that player’s performance in NBA prop markets.
Here are some things to consider if you want to decide about prop bets on player performance markets.
Most of the time, few players are given an under/over on a different statistic, like rebounds, points, assists, or a combination of two or more. Most of the time, the line is set at the star’s season average. For example, Luka Doncic’s season average for points is 28.8, so bookmakers might set his points line at 28.5.
Also, some key things can make a difference in whether a player has a good or bad night. The bookies have enough experience to change their lines when something big happens. Still, sometimes they go unnoticed, and you have a small window of time to catch them before they change.
Injury is the leading cause. When a key player on the team gets hurt, the oddsmakers think that the player who replaces them in the starting lineup must get most of that player’s work. Even though the replacement will increase the stats, at least two other players in the starting lineup will boost production. It will help them reach the over, and vice versa if an injured player returns to the lineup.
A great example is when point guard Chris Paul got hurt and had to leave the game. When Cameron Payne replaced him in the starting lineup, his numbers increased significantly. Still, Devin Booker and Duane Washington Jr got more points and assists while Chris was out. Most of the time, bookmakers need to pay more attention to these guys.
Matchups are another vital part of prop betting. Only some teams are good at defending some positions while producing a lot at others. When your player plays against teams like the Warriors or Celtics, it’s usually a safe bet to stay away from the overs.
They are good at defending every position and rarely let one player take over the game. The Boston Celtics are a team to keep an eye on. With Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, they can defend the guard positions very well.
On the other hand, they are the worst team at getting the ball back. We saw Andre Drummond, the best rebounder whose rebounding line is usually around 14.5, get 22 rebounds against the Celtics. It is a good sign for the overs, who can easily win.
When you bet on this kind of game, the best thing to do is to look at the team’s stats and defense vs. positions to know to whom to bet your money. Then go to your favorite casino online website to bet and enjoy playing.